Inverted Yield Curve - All You Need to Know and Disaster Prediction

by Rachel Garza

The Inverted Yield Curve is one of the most important curves in the financial world. It shows the yield of young bonds vs older bonds. This curve is terrifying for every financial expert. It is used for determining the current state of the market. Inverted Yield Curve can throw the entire stock market into a state of chaos. It can predict the downfall of an economy.

The curve looks pretty simple at first glance. However, it can predict an economic recession. The 2008 Financial recession is still the biggest recession of this century.

However, this curve is a very rare occurrence. You don't need to worry about that much. But, the market is going down again. So, you should know the importance of this curve. This will also help you in predicting the future recession. It is important to prevent yourself from making stupid decisions. Currently, everyone is investing more money in the market. The market is thriving currently. However, there are many factors that can affect the market. Thus, it is important to use an inverted yield curve for predicting the future of the market. In this article, we are going to discuss everything about the Inverted Yield Curve. It can have a severe impact on your finance. Thus, this article is important for everyone.

Definition of Inverted Yield Curve

First, you must understand the definition of Bonds. Bonds are the most basic thing in the financial world. It is similar to an IOU that the bank gives. If you are giving your money to the bank, then they will return you that money after some amount of time. They will also add some fixed interest in your money. Thus, your money will increase without doing anything.

For example, suppose that you are buying a one-year bond for $200. There is a 2% fixed return on it. Thus, you will get $204 after one year. If you are buying the same bond for two years, then you will get $208.08 after two years. This is the power of compounding. You can multiply your money by buying bonds.

The return rates of bonds are very low. If you are investing in mutual funds, then you can earn 10-20% interest. However, there are many benefits to buying these bonds. Some of the most important benefits are:

  • Stable Investment: Bonds are the most stable investment. If you are investing in government bonds, then you don't need to worry about losing your money. You will only lose your money if the government defaulted on its previous loans. However, this rarely happens. The USA government has never defaulted on its loans. Thus, this is the safest form of investment.
  • Guaranteed Return: You will always get fixed returns if you are buying bonds. If you are investing in mutual funds, then there is no guarantee on your returns. You can even lose your money in the worst case.
  • Higher Returns: If you are holding your bonds for a longer period, then you will get higher returns. This is the power of compounding. Your money will start to multiply rapidly after some years. Thus, it is always a good idea to hold your bonds for a longer period of time. However, there is an exception to this fact. It depends heavily on the inverted yield curve.

This curve mostly refers to the yields on the Treasure bonds. These bonds are guaranteed by the government. Thus, most people think that they are safe. A yield curve generally plots the return of bonds. This return is also known as the yield. The yield will depend on the maturity or the age of the bonds.

There is also a normal yield curve. This curve shows that older bonds will have better interest rates when compared to younger ones. However, there is also an inverted yield curve. It is the complete opposite of a normal yield curve. According to this curve, the younger or new bonds will give better returns when compared to the older ones. This curve shows that the investors are losing confidence in old bonds. Thus, it is the perfect sign of a future recession.

The daily fund rate is available on the Department of Treasure website. You can check the rate on this website. However, this curve will not happen on its own. There are many factors that can trigger this curve. Now, we are going to talk about the factors that cause this curve.

How does this curve happen?

There are various things that can motivate human begins. However, the fear of losing something is still the greatest motivational factor. This is also known as loss aversion. If there is a possibility of lose, then people get scared. We forget about the things that we've won. Most people will only concentrate on the things that they've lost. This is similar to any gambler mentality.

If you are scared, then you can make stupid decisions. You might sell all your investments due to a small dip in the market. This is a very stupid movie. During the recession, most investors will invest their money in the U.S. Treasury bonds. They will hold these bonds for a long period of time. Smart investors know that the interest rates are going to drop during a recession. Thus, they will start investing money in bonds.

This will increase the sale of long-term bonds. Most investors will start investing in them. Thus, the Federal Reserve will lower the yield rates. People will stop investing in the short-term Treasury bonds. Hence, the Feds will be forced to increase the yield of short-term bonds. This will help them in attracting more investors. These are the points that we have concluded until now:

  • Bonds are safe.
  • If people are worried about the market, then they will invest in bonds.
  • If more people are investing, then the return rate of bonds will decrease.

This is similar to the supply and demand concept. If fewer people are investing in bonds, then the Feds will increase the interest rate. This will help them in attracting more customers.

If you want to see a real example of the yield curve, then you should check the graph for December 2005. It occurred more than 3 years before the actual case. The Feds were giving more than 4.25% return rate to their investors. There were many factors that were affecting this. The Feds knew that the price bubble is growing with time. You could buy assets like housing at a very low-interest rate. They thought that the low-interest rates are causing this bubble. The feds finally increased the return rate to 4.25% in 2005.

The two-year-long bond was giving a yield of 4.4% in Dec. 2005. However, the seven-year-long bond was only giving a yield of 4.38%. The curve started to invert more. This was the starting stage of the recession. Thus, the investors were investing more money into longer-term bonds. The USA finally faced a recession in 2008 due to the housing crisis.

Note: This curve was not responsible for the recession. It was only the symptom of recession. You can use this curve for predicting the next recession.

The United States has seenmore than 7 recessions in its history. You will see an inverted yield curve before every recession. Many experts think that another inverted yield curve is coming. Thus, the recession is also coming. The yield curve can predict the recession. However, how does it affect you? This curve is a big thing for people working on Wall Street. But, how will it affect normal people?

Can this curve affect me?

The good thing about this curve is that it is temporary. This curve will start to flatten after some time. The last inverted yield curve was seen in 2007. After that, it returned to the normal form.

However, this curve can have a huge impact on your life. It can completely change your financial situation. Thus, it is important to understand its impact.

For example, suppose that you are investing money in long-term bonds. You will start seeing that the short-term bonds are giving better yields. This can affect your future plans. You will start earning less money from long-term bonds due to less interest rate. Many people buy their houses on an adjustable mortgage. Their interest term will depend on short-term bond rates. Thus, it will follow the pattern of bond rates. If the interest rates are high, then you will end up paying more money. Thus, it can affect your financial situation.

What should you do when this curve happens?

You can't control things like recession and an inverted yield curve. There are various factors that trigger these things. Thus, you should not focus on the things that you can't control. Instead, you should focus on the things that you can control. If you want to prepare for the inverted yield curve, then you should create an emergency fund.

The emergency fund is the money that you save for emergencies. There are various things that can go wrong in life. Thus, you should always be ready for medical and financial emergencies. It will also help you in dealing with the recession. You can lose your job in a recession. Thus, it is important to have a safety net. The emergency fund will ensure that you can tackle any financial emergency. The basics of these funds are:

  • Calculate your expenses: Many people can get laid off due to a financial recession. You need some time to find another job during the recession period. Thus, you should have money for taking care of your living expenses. You should calculate at least six months of your expenses. Your expense should include things like groceries, utilities, car payments, rent and mortgage payments.
  • Sub-savings account: This is another account that you can create. A Sub-saving account is different from a normal account. There is a certain goal of this sub-savings account. Thus, you can keep your emergency fund in these accounts.
  • Automate all your finances: You can use various apps for automating your finances. Thus, your money will go where it needs to go.


The Inverted yield curve is one of the most famous curves in the financial world. You can use it for predicting the recession. Thus, you can invest your money in better areas. It is always good to have some money in emergency funds. These funds will help you during the recession period. If you think that the recession is coming, then you should save your money. Also, you should take wise decisions during the recession period. Most people will start selling their stocks during the recession. However, this is never a good idea. If you don't have money during the recession period, then you will panic. Thus, you might end up making stupid decisions. However, if you have emergency funds, then you can easily deal with the recession.

About Rachel Garza

Rachel Garza is a passionate writer with a deep fascination for technology and science. Born and raised in an intellectually stimulating environment, she developed an early interest in exploring the latest advancements and breakthroughs in these fields. Rachel's love for writing and her insatiable curiosity led her to pursue a career as a tech and science writer.

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